Writing a Hypothesis

Developing a Hypothesis
Case Study: "What is the effect of the packaging of Oreo cookies on how many calories people actually consume (eat)?"

How do you write a hypothesis?  Let's learn by making a prediction for the example testable question, "What is the effect of the packaging of Oreo cookies on how many calories people actually consume (eat)?".  

We must first think about our "B.O.P." (background research, observations, and prior knowledge) to help us make our prediction.  Below is an example list of my observations and prior knowledge on Oreos.  Your list may very will vary from mine.  

Observations and Prior Knowledge:

• Oreo cookies come in 30 packs (3 rows of 10), 6 packs, mini bite size bags, and mini bite size cups.
• There is a nutrition label on the package of all Oreos that provides the number of calories in each serving of Oreos.
• When I eat snacks (not specific to Oreos) in smaller packages, I tend to stop when I finish the package.
  
• However, when I eat snacks (not specific to Oreos) in smaller packages, I tend to feel the need to finish the package, even when I am full.
• When I eat snacks in bigger packages, I tend to not pay attention to how much I eat.
• Studies have been conducted to see if smaller packaging causes people to eat less.

Background Research:
A good place to start background research is by going to the official (Nabisco) Oreo website.  Here is some important information I gathered from the Oreo website:

• Oreos also come in Family Size, 4 packs, "Snack Sacks", and "Big Bags".
• There are 160 calories in 3 regular sized Oreos (34 grams).
• There are 140 calories in a mini bite size bag of Oreos (29 grams).

After looking at the Oreo website, I then did a Google search to find any related studies on how packaging affects how many calories people consume (basically, how much people eat).  Ms. Abounader will be teaching you neat tricks on how to search for the more reliable sources.

Below is important background research I gathered from different (reliable) sites from my Google search.

• Sometimes small packaging drives people to eat more because people tend to want to finish a package (rather than stop when they are satisfied), and other times small packaging drives people to slow down because they want to have more for later: The Psychology of Small Packaging
• People generally do not follow the suggested serving size when eating packaged foods, and larger portions tend to cause people to eat more: Do Increased Portion Sizes Affect How Much We Eat?
• Clear packaging causes people to eat more: Eat 38% Less Without Trying

Now that we have our list of observations, prior knowledge, and background research, we can write a hypothesis!

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Writing a Hypothesis

In addition to including your background research, observations, and prior knowledge, scientists always include an independent variable (IV) and dependent variable (DV) in their hypotheses (like they do in their testable questions).  Below is the format scientists use to write a hypothesis. 

“If ____________________________[insert IV / cause]___________________________________  , 
then __________________________[insert DV / effect]__________________________________ _, 
because __[insert reasoning based on your background research, observations, and prior knowledge].”

We will be using this format to write hypotheses throughout the school year before conducting any experiment.

Below is an example of my tentative claim (hypothesis), based on my observations, prior knowledge, and background research:

"If Oreo cookies are packaged and offered to people in different sizes,
then people will eat more calories when offered Oreo cookies in larger packages,
because finishing a package signals people to stop eating.  According to a study in "Do Increased Portion Sizes Affect How Much We Eat?" published by the CDC, not only do people tend to eat more than the recommended serving size on snack labels, but people also tend to eat more calories when given bigger portions."

Assignment
Write the questions below and answer in complete sentences in your science notebook.

1.  What is B.O.P.?
2.  If your testable question involves investigating iPhones, what would be a good website to start your background research?
3.  Pick 3 of the testable questions below and write a hypothesis for each of the 3 questions in your science notebook.  Pick questions different from the one you had in class!

• How do smartphones affect the amount of exercise people receive?  Website for background research: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-13/news/37675597_1_teens-cellphones-video-games
• How does the type of food packaging (clear/transparent vs. not clear/not transparent) affect the amount of food people eat?  Website for background research: http://www.prevention.com/weight-loss/weight-loss-tips/how-food-packaging-affects-your-willpower
• How do energy drinks affect the concentration of middle school students?  Website for background research: http://www.sedgwick.ksu.edu/doc25073.ashx
• What is the effect of the increasing temperature of sea waters on the growth of coral reefs?  Website for background research: http://www.newsela.com/articles/florida-coral/id/1776/
• How does the type of potato chip (store bought vs. homemade) affect the time it takes to go "stale"?  Website for background research: http://www.scholastic.com/scopemagazine/pdfs/SCOPE-090113-PairedTexts.pdf
• How does the type of soap (regular vs. antibacterial) affect the number of germs killed?  Website for background research: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/health/08real.html?_r=1&

4.  Write a hypothesis for YOUR testable question.  Make sure to include background research!