Developing a Hypothesis
Case Study: "What is the effect of the packaging of Oreo cookies on how many calories people actually consume (eat)?"

How do you write a hypothesis?  Let's learn by making a prediction for the example testable question, "What is the effect of the packaging of Oreo cookies on how many calories people actually consume (eat)?".  

We must first think about our "B.O.P." (background research, observations, and prior knowledge) to help us make our prediction.  Below is an example list of my observations and prior knowledge on Oreos.  Your list may very will vary from mine.  

Observations and Prior Knowledge:

• Oreo cookies come in 30 packs (3 rows of 10), 6 packs, mini bite size bags, and mini bite size cups.
• There is a nutrition label on the package of all Oreos that provides the number of calories in each serving of Oreos.
• When I eat snacks (not specific to Oreos) in smaller packages, I tend to stop when I finish the package.
  
• However, when I eat snacks (not specific to Oreos) in smaller packages, I tend to feel the need to finish the package, even when I am full.
• When I eat snacks in bigger packages, I tend to not pay attention to how much I eat.
• Studies have been conducted to see if smaller packaging causes people to eat less.

Background Research:
A good place to start background research is by going to the official (Nabisco) Oreo website.  Here is some important information I gathered from the Oreo website:

• Oreos also come in Family Size, 4 packs, "Snack Sacks", and "Big Bags".
• There are 160 calories in 3 regular sized Oreos (34 grams).
• There are 140 calories in a mini bite size bag of Oreos (29 grams).

After looking at the Oreo website, I then did a Google search to find any related studies on how packaging affects how many calories people consume (basically, how much people eat).  Ms. Abounader will be teaching you neat tricks on how to search for the more reliable sources.

Below is important background research I gathered from different (reliable) sites from my Google search.

• Sometimes small packaging drives people to eat more because people tend to want to finish a package (rather than stop when they are satisfied), and other times small packaging drives people to slow down because they want to have more for later: The Psychology of Small Packaging
• People generally do not follow the suggested serving size when eating packaged foods, and larger portions tend to cause people to eat more: Do Increased Portion Sizes Affect How Much We Eat?
• Clear packaging causes people to eat more: Eat 38% Less Without Trying

Now that we have our list of observations, prior knowledge, and background research, we can write a hypothesis!

Writing a Hypothesis

In addition to including your background research, observations, and prior knowledge, scientists always include an independent variable (IV) and dependent variable (DV) in their hypotheses (like they do in their testable questions).  Below is the format scientists use to write a hypothesis. 

“If ____________________________[insert IV / cause]___________________________________  , 
then __________________________[insert DV / effect]__________________________________ _, 
because __[insert reasoning based on your background research, observations, and prior knowledge].”

We will be using this format to write hypotheses throughout the school year before conducting any experiment.

Below is an example of my tentative claim (hypothesis), based on my observations, prior knowledge, and background research:

"If Oreo cookies are packaged and offered to people in different sizes,
then people will eat more calories when offered Oreo cookies in larger packages,
because finishing a package signals people to stop eating.  According to a study in "Do Increased Portion Sizes Affect How Much We Eat?" published by the CDC, not only do people tend to eat more than the recommended serving size on snack labels, but people also tend to eat more calories when given bigger portions."

Assignment
Write the questions below and answer in complete sentences in your science notebook.

1.  What is B.O.P.?
2.  If your testable question involves investigating iPhones, what would be a good website to start your background research?
3.  Pick 3 of the testable questions below and write a hypothesis for each of the 3 questions in your science notebook.  Pick questions different from the one you had in class!

• How do smartphones affect the amount of exercise people receive?  Website for background research: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-13/news/37675597_1_teens-cellphones-video-games
• How does the type of food packaging (clear/transparent vs. not clear/not transparent) affect the amount of food people eat?  Website for background research: http://www.prevention.com/weight-loss/weight-loss-tips/how-food-packaging-affects-your-willpower
• How do energy drinks affect the concentration of middle school students?  Website for background research: http://www.sedgwick.ksu.edu/doc25073.ashx
• What is the effect of the increasing temperature of sea waters on the growth of coral reefs?  Website for background research: http://www.newsela.com/articles/florida-coral/id/1776/
• How does the type of potato chip (store bought vs. homemade) affect the time it takes to go "stale"?  Website for background research: http://www.scholastic.com/scopemagazine/pdfs/SCOPE-090113-PairedTexts.pdf
• How does the type of soap (regular vs. antibacterial) affect the number of germs killed?  Website for background research: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/health/08real.html?_r=1&

4.  Write a hypothesis for YOUR testable question.  Make sure to include background research!

What is a Hypothesis?

As we move forward with our individual science investigations, we need to look back to Dr. OPHERC before we take our next "step" in the scientific method.  So far, we have made observations (O) about topics that interest us (cookies, baseball, Call of Duty 4, nail polish, skateboards, etc.), and have developed testable questions (P - problem/question) for our own scientific investigations. Therefore, our next step is to make and write a hypothesis (H) so that we can move on with our experiments (E)!

People tend to describe a hypothesis as "an educated guess".  However, as scientists, a hypothesis is much more than that.  A hypothesis is the predicted answer to the scientist's testable scientific question, based on observations, prior knowledge, and background research.  In the next blog post, we will learn how to include our "observations, prior knowledge, and background research" in our written hypotheses.  **FYI: hypotheses is the plural form of hypothesis = hypotheses is more than one hypothesis**

Another way to think about a hypothesis is in the context of a scientific explanation (C.E.R.). A hypothesis is the tentative claim of the scientist. But what does tentative mean?  Tentative describes something that is not fully worked out or tested.  In other words, when something is tentative, there is still a degree of uncertainty.  Therefore, before we develop our scientific explanations, we need to test our hypotheses through experimentation to gather evidence (data) to make our claim much more certain, and most importantly, tested.

Theory vs. Hypothesis
Earlier this year, we learned that a theory and hypothesis are two very different things.  A theory is a essentially a hypothesis that has been tested and proven (time after time) by many scientists over many generations.  Think of a theory as a highly "confident claim" (unlike the "tentative claim" that describes a hypothesis).  Check out the rap video called "Theory vs. Hypothesis" by Coma Niddy on You Tube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R56gU1-Nmgg) for homework to help you better understand the difference between a theory and a hypothesis.  You will need to watch the video to complete the assignment at the bottom.

Observations, Prior Knowledge, Background Research

Below is a quick summary of the "observations, prior knowledge, and background research" on which we base our hypotheses.

• Observations: All of the qualitative and quantitative observations you have made about your topic that will help you to make a logical prediction.   These observations can also include your own experiences with the topic.
  
• Prior knowledge: All of the things you already know about your topic that will help you make a logical prediction.  This knowledge can come from previous teachers, books you have read, videos you have watched, etc.  Keep in mind that what you might think to be knowledge could actually be inaccurate or a matter of opinion.
• Background research: Any information you can find on your topic (that will help you make a logical prediction) from reliable online, print, audio, and/or video sources.  Background research is actually like a mini "secondary research investigation" since you are using the data collected by other scientists!  **FYI, Ms. Abounader will be teaching us how to search for reliable sources.**

Pandora = Productive?

Let's use my experiment on the topic "Pandora and Work Productivity" to help us understand how to use our observations, prior knowledge, and background research to develop a hypothesis.  As a reminder, the testable question I plan to address through my controlled investigation is, "How does listening to Pandora while doing work on shonscience.com affect work productivity (the amount of work completed in the same amount of time)?"  

Observations: What have I observed about my topic?

• Students generally love listening to music.  Anytime we go on a field trip, for example, students never hesitate to ask for an opportunity to listen to their iPods, smartphones, etc.
• Students have told me that they listen to music while doing homework.  Some have even stated that it helps them to get more work done.
• Whenever I want to get work done at home, I almost always listen to music.
• Whenever I exercise, I almost always listen to upbeat music to keep me going.

Prior Knowledge: What do I already know about my topic?

• Listening to music can impact mood.  This is why "music therapy" exists!
  
• Pandora is a fast way to allow people to listen to the music they prefer since people can choose and/or create their own radio stations.

Background Research: What new information about my topic did I find?

• According to the NY Times article, "The Power of Music, Tapped in a Cubicle", a study found that "those who listened to music completed their tasks more quickly and came up with better ideas than those who didn’t, because the music improved their mood."
  
• According to "Listening to Music: Boosting or Reducing Work Productivity?", a study found that listening to music while doing work can boost work productivity simply by blocking out noise. "...plugging your ears with ear buds or headphones and listening to music can block out external noise and be an act of taking control over what you hear, leading to better motivation for doing the job at hand."  
• Both of the above articles also mentioned that an individual's personality and the type of music played a role on how listening to music affects work productivity.

Now that I have my observations, prior knowledge, and background research outlined, I am equipped to make a hypothesis!  In the next blog post, we will learn how to incorporate these things into the actual written hypothesis.

Assignment
Write the questions below and answer them in your science notebook in complete sentences.

1.  What is a hypothesis?
2.  What does tentative mean?
3.  What is the relationship between a hypothesis and hypotheses?
4.  What is the difference between a theory and a hypothesis?
5.  What three things are needed to develop a hypothesis?
6.  How does "background research" help a scientist to develop a stronger prediction (hypothesis)?
7.  How is background research also like a mini "secondary research investigation"?  Explain.
8. Can your personal experiences be used to develop a hypothesis?  Explain.
9.  What is your hypothesis for Ms. Shon's Pandora experiment?  
10.  According to the video, what is one example of a theory?
11.  According to the video, can theories change (be modified)?
12.  According to the video, is "dark matter" a theory or hypothesis?  Explain.

1.  What are the four types of scientific investigations?

The four types of scientific investigations are controlled investigations, field investigations, design investigations, and secondary research investigations.

2.  Why are controlled investigations/experiments usually conducted indoors?

Controlled investigations/experiments are usually conducted indoors because the scientist must control the environmental conditions, such as the temperature, humidity, amount of light, amount of noise, materials, etc.

3.  How is a field investigation like a controlled investigation?

A field investigation is like a controlled investigation in that both investigations, the scientist chooses to observe and measure how one change (IV) has a measurable effect (DV) on something else.  

4.  How is a field investigation different from controlled investigation?

The key difference between a field investigation and a controlled investigation is that the scientist does not change anything in the environment in a field investigation, but rather, gathers data on the conditions or situations that already exist.

5.  What is a design investigation?

A design investigation is an experiment in which the scientist changes the design of something (IV) in order to create the effect desired (by the scientist).  

6.  Can a secondary research investigation use data from different sources?  Explain.

Yes, a secondary research investigation can use data from different sources.  The data that is used can come from the internet, in print, or other sources.  

7.  What is the major advantage to a secondary research investigation?

The major advantage to a secondary research investigation is that the scientist can take advantage of very large data sets that have been gathered over many years or over very large areas.  Therefore, the scientist can study long-term cause and effect relationships.

8.  Jason wants to find out if the members on his soccer team who wear cleats during a game kick the ball further than those who do not wear cleats.  What type of investigation will Jason conduct?  Explain.

Jason will conduct a field investigation.  Jason will observe and measure how one change (IV) has a measurable effect (DV) on something else.  However, Jason does not change anything in the environment (he has no control over the the other actions/choices/behaviors of the team), but rather, gathers data on the conditions or situations that already exist.

9.  Brandon wants to find out what type of video game console heats up to a higher temperature.  Brandon will use the exact same game in each console and will play for the exact same amount of time in the same room.  What type of investigation will Brandon conduct?  Explain.

Brandon will conduct a controlled experiment.  In order to have a fair test, Brandon needs to make sure to control the environmental conditions, such as the temperature of the room before the test, the game being used, the individuals playing the game, the amount of time playing the game, etc.

10.  Jennifer wants to know if the amount of sleep people receive over a lifetime has an effect on how long they live.  What type of investigation will Jennifer conduct?  Explain.

Jennifer will conduct a secondary research investigation.  She will use data that have been collected by other scientists over the lifetime of many different individuals to answer her question.  Since this is a long-term study, Jennifer cannot simply use data from a controlled experiment.  

11.  Alec wants to find out how the circumference of his skateboard wheels affects his speed.  Alec tests out three different wheel sizes.  What type of investigation will Alec conduct?  Explain.

Alec will conduct a design investigation.  He is changing the design of something (IV) in order to create an effect desired (to go faster).  

12.  Ms. Shon wants to know if the amount of rainfall has an effect on the number of roses that grow on her rose bush.  What type of investigation will Ms. Shon conduct?  Explain.

Ms. Shon will conduct a field investigation.  She will observe and measure how one change (IV) has a measurable effect (DV) on something else.  However, Ms. Shon does not change anything in the environment (she has no control over the amount of rainfall), but rather, gathers data on the conditions or situations that already exist.

Controlled Investigation
As we have already learned, a controlled experiment involves changing one thing to observe and measure the effects of that one change.  In a controlled experiment, the scientist has total control over the environmental conditions.  The temperature, humidity, amount of light, amount of noise, materials, etc. can all be controlled and monitored by the scientist throughout the investigation.  For this reason, controlled investigations are usually done indoors, such as in a classroom or kitchen.  

Example Controlled Investigation Questions: 

• How does the pH of water affect the growth (height) of a fig plant?
  
• What is the effect of the amount of stuffing in an Oreo on the grams of fat in one Oreo?

Field Investigation
A field investigation involves observing and measuring plants and animals (including people) in their natural habitat or environment without changing, harming, or altering the setting or any part of the test subjects.  Like in a controlled experiment, the scientist chooses to observe and measure how one change (IV) has a measurable effect (DV) on something else.  The key difference is that the scientist does not change anything in the environment, but rather, gathers data on the conditions or situations that already exist.

Example Field Investigation Questions: 

• How does the time of day affect the number of fish a penguin eats?
• What is the effect of the temperature in Prospect Park on the number of ducks in Prospect Park Lake?

Design Investigation
A design investigation involves changing the design of something (IV) in order to create the effect desired by the scientist.  For example, the scientist may wish to design a paper rocket that will travel the furthest distance.  Therefore, the scientist might test his/her rocket with 3 different fin lengths. Once he/she has the results of the experiment, the scientist can then create the final product and test it via a controlled experiment to see if it has met the goal.

Example Design Investigation Questions:

• How does the length of the fin on a paper rocket affect the distance the rocket travels?
• What is the effect of the circumference of the wheel on the speed of the wooden car?

Secondary Research Investigation
A secondary research investigation involves using data (evidence) that has already been gathered by other scientists to answer a question.  Therefore, there is no direct "experimenting" done by the scientist in a secondary research investigation.  The data that is used can come from the internet, in print, or other sources.  The major advantage of secondary research investigations is that the scientist can take advantage of very large data sets that have been gathered over many years or over very large areas.  Questions that involve studying long term cause-and-effect relationships (ecosystems, climate, water quality, etc.) may be best suited for this type of investigation.  

Example Secondary Research Investigation Questions:

• How does the increase in social media (Facebook, Twitter) use around the world affect the amount of time people spend with their families?
  
• What is the effect of the increase in carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere on the rate of glaciers melting in the Arctic?

Assignment
Complete the questions below in your science notebook.  Write the questions for #1-7.  You do not need to write the questions for #8-12 (just restate and answer in complete sentences for 8-12).

1.  What are the four types of scientific investigations?
2.  Why are controlled investigations/experiments usually conducted indoors?
3.  How is a field investigation like a controlled investigation?
4.  How is a field investigation different from controlled investigation?
5.  What is a design investigation?
6.  Can a secondary research investigation use data from different sources?  Explain.
7.  What is the major advantage to a secondary research investigation?
8.  Jason wants to find out if the members on his soccer team who wear cleats during a game kick the ball further than those who do not wear cleats.  What type of investigation will Jason conduct?  Explain.
9.  Brandon wants to find out what type of video game console heats up to a higher temperature.  Brandon will use the exact same game in each console and will play for the exact same amount of time in the same room.  What type of investigation will Brandon conduct?  Explain.
10.  Jennifer wants to know if the amount of sleep people receive over a lifetime has an effect on how long they live.  What type of investigation will Jennifer conduct?  Explain.
11.  Alec wants to find out how the circumference of his skateboard wheels affects his speed.  Alec tests out three different wheel sizes.  What type of investigation will Alec conduct?  Explain.
12.  Ms. Shon wants to know if the amount of rainfall has an effect on the number of roses that grow on her rose bush.  What type of investigation will Ms. Shon conduct?  Explain.

Scientists change and shape our world by developing explanations and making sense of the things we do not know or do not understand in our world (and outside of our world).  For example, Louis Pasteur's controlled experiment that investigated the question, "Can microorganisms (germs) generate spontaneously?" has completely changed modern medicine.  Pasteur proved that microorganisms do not grow randomly, and that microorganisms must travel through the air or through direct physical contact in order to grow.  

As result of Pasteur's experiment, billions and billions of lives have been saved.  For hundreds of years now, doctors around the world make sure to wash their hands and sanitize facilities to keep disease-causing germs from spreading.  In our school, we know always to wash our hands before and after experimenting, and to cover our mouths when sneezing.  We have Louis Pasteur to thank!

In-Class Assignment
Answer the questions below in your science notebook.  Write the question and answer in COMPLETE sentences.

1.  How did Louis Pasteur's experiment change/shape our world?

2.  Pick the testable question (among those you have written) that means the most to you.  What is the purpose of this testable question?  

3.  WHO could benefit from the information you gather through your scientific investigation? 

4.  HOW might those individuals benefit from the information you gather through your scientific investigation?

5.  What materials will you need to conduct the experiment (include people, place, and things)?

6.  Identify the variables in your experiment:
     IV: __________________________________________________________
     DV: _________________________________________________________
     C: __________________________________________________________
     CG: _________________________________________________________

7.  What materials will you need to measure your dependent variable?

8.  What might be difficult about conducting your experiment/collecting data?